How many Londoners have returned to the office since the pandemic?

Five years on from the start of the pandemic, for the most part, life has returned to normal. But in a few ways, we have seen more of a permanent shift.

TFL's recently released travel data from the first eight months of 2024 showed that on weekends, tube passenger numbers are now roughly where they were before the pandemic.

However, on weekdays, the number of people travelling on the tube is still a long way short of pre-pandemic levels. These figures reinforce the idea that the growing attraction of working from home could be permanently reducing the number of people coming into the office during the week.

Recent studies have shown that many of today's jobseekers are often more attracted to roles with blended working rather than a higher salary. The pandemic has allowed a great number of Londoners to find a more suitable work-life balance, and this seems to be something they are unwilling to lose.

Swapping commuting for telecommuting

A deeper dive into the data suggests that two new groups of workers have emerged- TWaTs (Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday-ers) and fully remote workers.

A growing number of workplaces are now expecting 60% office attendance. As seen from the above graph, the most common days to fulfil this requirement are Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, which explains why Monday and Friday travel figures are lagging so far behind pre-pandemic levels.

However, Tuesday-Thursday passenger figures are still 18% behind 2019 levels, suggesting that there are a significant number of workers for whom, their home is now a permanent office.

Is full-time office working still a virtual reality?

TFL have taken measures to bring back some of this demand. In Spring 2024, Sadiq Khan piloted off-peak Friday tube fares to encourage people back to the office on Fridays, and to motivate people to go out and socialise on a Friday in a bid to further stimulate Central London's economy.

Although this trial did little to improve the number of Friday office-goers, it may be a mandate rather than a motivator that ultimately increases the number of workers back in the office.

Prominent political figures like Jeremy Hunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg have recently addressed the case for less hybrid work. This has come after the Civil Service established their commitment to a minimum 60% office attendance for its employees.

With a responsibility to boost Central London's economy and bolster the value of London's commercial property, we may start to see more governmental pressure on firms to bring their workers back to the office for good.

Companies like Amazon, Boots, HSBC and X are all in the process of increasing the number of employees in the office, and in 2025 it seems that more and more employers are likely to join that list.

It is clear that some influential figures want to put hybrid working to bed. But for now, the chances of getting all London's commuters back to the office, seem remote.

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