Why are so many Premier League penalties being scored?
- saulwesty
- Jan 17
- 4 min read
Updated: Jan 25
Image by Ardfern, licensed under CC BY-SA 4.0.
"I don't really look at the ball. I just wait for the keeper to make a move. Once he does, I open up and put it on the other side of the goal." - Ivan Toney
After joining Brentford in 2020, Toney scored 23 out of the 24 penalties he took for the club, showing why manager Thomas Frank regularly called him “one of the best penalty takers in the world”.
Most players choose their spot before taking their penalty. But Toney takes an alternative approach. By watching the goalkeeper’s movement as he is about to strike, he is able to put the ball the other way at the last moment.
Though he has been doing this for a while, Euro 2024 shone a light on Toney’s successful technique when the nation witnessed his ‘no-look’ penalty against Switzerland to go through to the semi finals.
@BBC Sport on X, July 6, 2024
Numerous videos and memes of the routine went viral across social media after the game, as people poked fun at Toney’s stone-cold stare down with the keeper. Even England's official Instagram account joined in on the fun by quickly creating a short video of Toney performing his ‘no-look’ technique during day-to-day tasks.
@England on X, July 8, 2024
Likely taking inspiration from this technique, Toney’s teammate Bryan Mbeumo has had a successful penalty record using a similar style. He utilises a short run-up and has sent the goalkeeper the wrong way for almost all nine of the penalties he has taken for Brentford.
Brighton’s Joao Pedro also uses a comparable penalty technique, managing to send the keeper to the opposite direction for eight consecutive penalties last season.
These cases of successful penalty taking were likely a contributing factor for the notable increase in penalty conversion last season.
For seven years, the Premier League penalty conversion rate hovered at around 78%. But in 2023/24, it shot up to 90%. To better explain why there has been this significant increase, DOSE has explored how factors like improvements in technique, goalkeeper restrictions and psychological strategies have possibly led to this increase.
Raising the bar
According to PremierInjuries, clubs were affected by injury burden 11% more during the 2023/24 Premier League Season than the year before. Because of this, nearly half of teams had three or more penalty takers. This likely caused players who wouldn’t usually take a penalty to put more emphasis on practising their technique, leading to higher conversion.
Taking penalties, like many other parts of football, is often influenced by psychological factors.
As more teams employ sports psychologists, players are able to learn to keep a cool head when taking penalties. For Toney, this has been of great benefit, as he credited Brentford’s sports psychologist after scoring his iconic penalty at the Euros.
Similarly, renowned football psychologist Geir Jordet gave some insight on Arsenal’s shootout strategy when they prevailed over Manchester City during the 2023/24 Community Shield. On X, he noted that all penalty takers waited 5 seconds after the whistle before taking their penalty, which is now a common technique known for improving penalty success.
@GeirJordet on X, Aug 6, 2023
As sports clubs understand the impact of psychological factors within games, they are able to make significant mental and technical tweaks to succeed more in high pressure situations like penalties.
These days, saving is harder
Over recent seasons, law changes by the International Football Association Board have restricted how goalkeepers can move during penalty situations.
After Argentina’s Emiliano Martinez famously used psychological tricks to put off France’s penalty takers in the 2022 World Cup Final shootout, the IFAB instigated new directives for goalkeepers in penalty scenarios.
The new laws say that the goalkeeper cannot “unfairly distract the kicker” or “delay the taking of the kick”.
Yellow cards for goalkeepers in some shootouts towards the end of last season suggest that referees now have limited tolerance for this kind of behaviour. This has handed a key psychological advantage to kick takers.
The Waiting is the Hardest Part
VAR checks have led to longer wait times after penalties are awarded.
In VAR’s first season, Premier League penalty conversion fell by 4%. Part of this was likely because long wait times impacted penalty takers’ focus.
After 5 years of VAR, clubs have now adapted to these delays. Often after a penalty is awarded, one player will spot the ball, giving the penalty taker time to mentally prepare.
Approaches like this suggest that teams have learned to cope with VAR delays and mental preparation and strategies have helped increase penalty conversion rates.
Lost in Translation
There are also figures which suggest that the high penalty conversion rate last season could be an anomaly.
We found data from the major leagues across Europe, to see whether other teams also scored more penalties last season than usual.
As seen in the graphic above, penalty conversion rates in most European leagues were as average as ever.
Only 71% of penalties in the Scottish League last season were scored, with the league Champions Celtic missing many - converting just 9 of their 14 penalties.
Although a higher proportion of penalties were scored in other leagues, none came close to the 90% conversion rate which the Premier League saw.
Whatever the reason for the high conversion of Premier League penalties, similar success has not yet made its way across the Channel.
Analysis of this season will tell us if the Premier League penalty revolution is permanent and if so, whether other countries follow, or whether we will see a lack of conversion.
DOSE
